Covid-19 Prevalence

Amazonian tribes are getting it, a tiger in the bronx zoo got it, we’ve been social distancing in California and still cannot get our R0 below one, and we’re seeing the smallest towns in rural America getting hit.

I’ve been saying for months that this thing is much more wide spread than people are realizing. So it was with great interest I followed the Stanford study on antibodies in the general population. Then I saw the Los Angeles County study that found the same thing.

The basic data:

  • Santa Clara County: 2.5% to 4.2%
  • LA County: 2.8% to 5.6%

People are saying it’s too early to interpret what these results mean and the data may not be accurate.

First, the same lab, Premier Biotech, conducted the serological tests. In the two control tests, there was a 100% success rate in identifying negative results with a lower success rate in identifying positive results. This means the county percentages are an underrepresentation.

Second, we don’t know if these antibodies mean a person is immune to a second infection. This is the question we need answered. This is going to tell us if a vaccine is even viable.

If we can’t achieve herd-immunity, we’re going to gain a fifth common human coronavirus. The virus should mutate to become less deadly over time, but how long will this take?

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